Kishida’s Visit to Thailand:

Significance to Regional Geopolitics in the GMS

Narut Charoensri

The diplomatic relationship between Japan and Thailand has been challenged by many factors in the last decades. The rise of China is one of the challenges. The Chinese government has stepped into Southeast Asia, particularly the Mekong subregion which comprises Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam through its bilateral relations and regional initiatives such as the Lancang-Mekong Co-operation (MLC).

Kishida Fumio’s visit to Thailand between 1 and 2 May 2022 is his first official visit since Kishida took his PM position in 2020. The main objective of this visit is to celebrate the 130th-anniversary diplomatic relations between Japan and Thailand and to strengthen the relations. This visit is part of his tour to the UK, Italy, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam. This visit emphasises the importance of what Southeast Asia means to Japan from both economic and strategic perspectives. Japan is a very important economic partner of Thailand. In 2021, Japan is the 2nd largest trade partner to Thailand, whilst Thailand is the 5th largest trade partner to Japan.

This visit should be seen as a strategy that Japan aims to integrate the regional diplomatic relations that tackle many regional issues, including economic, political, and security issues. Japan approached Thailand as one of the main security partners in the region. The discussion between Kishida and Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prime Minister of Thailand, touched on many critical issues. One of the most significant milestones of this visit is the announcement of new defence ties. This includes the technology and military transfer from Japan. The Thai government anticipates an increase in the Japanese defence industry in Thailand. This move is different from what Japan moved in Vietnam and Indonesia. The substantial issues that Japan made with Vietnam and Indonesia focus on infrastructure development and energy. The expected military transfer between Japan and Thailand reflects Japan’s endeavour on balancing China in the subregion. We have witnessed the emerging engagement of China in the Mekong subregion in many ways. China initiated the LMC and launched many hard infrastructure development projects in Laos, and Cambodia.

However, when we consider the importance of Vietnam and Indonesia from a regional production network perspective, these two countries have received considerable interest from Japanese investors. Many studies have shown that the increase in minimum wage along with the uncertain political situation that has undergone for more than a decade in Thailand had a significant impact on the decision of Japanese investors to move out of Thailand. Vietnam and Indonesia are the two main options if they had to relocate the factory and investment. Kishida’s visits to Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, thereby, reflect how Japan keeps the relations with the three countries based on economic and business relations.

Nonetheless, Thailand is still a strong production base for Japanese manufacturers. Kishida visited KOSEN-KMITL, a higher education institute in Thailand that focuses on engineering. A survey by JETRO in Thailand revealed that many Japanese manufacturers in Thailand see the insufficient of engineers in Thailand as a constraint on economic and industrial development. In fact, not only did the KOSEN initiated by Japan, Thammasat University’s SIIT was also kicked off and supported by Keidanren. Kishida’s stop at KOSEN highlights how Japan is help developing human resources in Thailand to support economic and industrial development.

The visit to Thailand and other countries also emphasised what was Japan’s position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Kishida stressed how Japan values the rule-based international order which is also one of the key elements in the Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP). Thailand voted at the 11th Emergency Special Session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) to condemn Russia’s aggression. 

Not only did Kishida’s tour promotes Japan’s economic and political interests, but it also shed light on value-based diplomacy. Japan has been promoting a rules-based international order which can be seen in the idea of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP). The visit to Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia reflect how Japan would like to highlight the ideas of order through the dialogue on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the South China Sea conflict. Hence, the visit to Southeast Asia is another key step for Japan in strengthening its relations with Southeast Asia whilst keeping enunciating the value-based diplomacy. 

Kishida’s visit to Southeast Asia, accordingly, help integrate and strengthen Japan’s goals in help forming a strong regional arrangement through the development of economic and business co-operation, and the might of military co-operation. This helped regain Japan’s leading position in the region which China has stepped into many development projects. In other words, the visit is how Japan is upholding its position in challenging regional geopolitics. 

RCAS Commentary-Kishida’s Visit to Thailand.pdf