The annual US-Philippines “Balikatan” (shoulder-to-shoulder) military exercise is taking place in the northern Philippines from 21 April to 9 May. The 2025 Balikatan military exercise, despite the financial difficulties in the US and the Philippines, still involves 14,000 soldiers, just 2,000 fewer than last year. It is also much bigger than the 2022 exercise involving about 9,000 American and Filipino troops. It is clear that Washington and Manila have sharply expanded the Balikatan military exercise since Philippine President Marcos Jr assumed office in June 2022.  

▲AFP Chief of Staff General Romeo S Brawner Jr with LtGen James F Glynn, U.S. Exercise Director, and MGen Francisco F Lorenzo Jr., Philippine Exercise Director unfurl the Exercise Balikatan 40-2025 flag during its Opening Ceremony on April 21. (Photo by AFP Public Affair Office).

The US and the Philippines have also actively sought to involve their allies in participating in the Balikatan military exercise to transform the bilateral exercise into a multilateral one and thus deter China’s “aggression” in the South China Sea (SCS). This year, the Japan Self-Defense Forces participated in this exercise independently for the first time, and 16 observer states were invited to observe the military exercise.

The 2025 Balikatan military exercise took place as usual in the northern Philippines’ Luzon Island and expanded to the Batanes Islands, much closer to the Taiwan Strait. Located at the northernmost tip of the Batanes Islands, Yami Island is just 142 kilometres from Taiwan Island and 99 kilometres from the Taiwanese outlying island of Orchid Island, much closer than the over 200 kilometres to Luzon Island.

Enhancing US-Philippine maritime strike and deterrence capabilities

Because of the geographical proximity, the US military airlifted several anti-ship missile launchers from northern Luzon to “several islands” in the Batanes Islands during the Balikatan exercise. Moreover, the US military collaborated with the Philippine Marine Corps to create a forward expeditionary base on Luzon Island for simulating missile launch missions.

For the first time, the US military deployed the Navy/Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) in the Balikatan exercise, providing air and maritime missile defence to the Philippines and enhancing the US-Philippine maritime strike and deterrence capabilities in the waters surrounding the Taiwan Strait. It confirms that the US and the Philippines are strengthening their joint air, land, and sea combat systems around the Taiwan Strait.

It is worth noting that just a day before the Balikatan exercise kicked off, the Philippine Navy’s BRP 36 patrol vessel intruded into Huangyan Island, claimed by China. Eventually, the Philippine vessel was driven away by the Chinese vessels from the People’s Liberation Army Southern Theater Command.

This incident underscores the strategic consideration between the US and the Philippines. They aim to continue their “harassment” operations in the SCS while preparing for intervention in the Taiwan Strait in an attempt to create more “troubles” for China and prepare for the coming military conflicts in the two waters.

Philippines may not achieve its aims so easily

Although the Philippines tries to get US protection to resist the so-called China threats through military exercises with the US, achieving the goal is not easy.

First of all, the US’s defence commitments are unreliable. From the beginning of Trump’s presidency, he frequently complained about its allies taking advantage of America’s security guarantees. He pressured them to bear the cost of stationing US forces and increase their military expenditure to protect themselves. Given the rising economic recessions amid the tariff war launched by Trump, the US is unlikely to arm the Philippines persistently, and the joint deterrence developed by the US and the Philippines has failed to deter China’s countermeasures.

Second, China has rejected the US and Philippine provocations and enhanced its deterrent power in the SCS and the Taiwan Strait. Regarding the Balikatan exercise, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun warned that “those who play with fire will burn themselves”.

Although the CCG claimed that it aims to dispel the Philippines, which illegally entered into this tiny reef, it is believed that China intends to retaliate against the provocative Balikatan exercise.

Soon after this warning, China’s Coast Guard (CCG) was reported to land on a disputed reef in the SCS-Tiexian Jiao (Sandy Cay)-and actually seize it. Although the CCG claimed that it aims to dispel the Philippines, which illegally entered into this tiny reef, it is believed that China intends to retaliate against the provocative Balikatan exercise.

In practice, China has consolidated its control of the disputed reefs and islands in the SCS since Marcos Jr expanded defence cooperation with the US and launched provocations in the SCS in the past two years. As a result, the Philippines has suffered from the “reactive force” of these aggressive actions, including the Balikatan exercise.

Not just the US

Third, the US-Philippines military exercises depart from the neighbouring countries’ peaceful claims. Soon before the Balikatan exercise, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a “charm diplomacy” in Southeast Asia and signed dozens of cooperation agreements with the Southeast Asian states. The SCS claimants, such as Vietnam and Malaysia, agreed to properly manage the SCS disputes and accelerate the Code of Conduct in the SCS (COC) Consultations. In that case, the Philippines would be perceived as a “troublemaker” by other claimants.

To achieve peaceful dispute management, the Philippines requires immediate diplomatic engagement with China and regional actors through active diplomatic actions.

The Philippines needs to develop multiple security strategies that depend only on US protection through military drills to achieve comprehensive national defence goals. To achieve peaceful dispute management, the Philippines requires immediate diplomatic engagement with China and regional actors through active diplomatic actions. Expanding strategic partnerships with entities extending beyond American alliances improves nations’ flexibility. A strong economic resilience achieved through well-developed programmes builds national security by minimising threat exposure.

To conclude, joint military exercises between the Philippines and the US combine effective coordination with assurance signals. However, they do not provide complete security protection against China’s focused pursuit of SCS interests. Due to its geopolitical advantages, the Philippines is a vital region that both nations and countries seek to control. A comprehensive approach to protecting the Philippines’ future depends entirely on combining these strategic elements into one cohesive framework.

This article was first published at Think China, Singapore, April 29, 2025, https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/why-us-philippines-military-exercises-wont-stop-china-south-china-sea.

<Why US-Philippines Military Exercises won’t Stop China  in the South China Sea>