In contemporary international politics, no other country in the Asian continent has been in focus as Afghanistan. Owing to the geo-strategic location and termed as ‘Cockpit of Asia’, Afghanistan has been a point of pivotal interest for many regional and international actors. Every global power or regional actor tries to have a hawk eye over Afghanistan because of the peculiar characteristics this land and its inhabitants have.

▲The title page of RCAS new book of Afghanistan.

Afghanistan has been a chess board for these players over the past several decades and continues to be the decisive player of the game for them. It was very much clear to the world that the way in which the United States of America and its allies left Afghanistan would pave the way for another country to run the state of affairs of Afghanistan.

The Taliban takeover created panic for many regional and global players, owing to their previous record of governing Afghanistan. The regional states are aligning for having a sway over the Taliban and move ahead for achieving their respective national interests.
The Uncertain Future of Afghanistan: Terrorism, Reconstruction, and Great Power Rivalry is the testimony of the above discussion, as it discusses Afghanistan’s each and every aspect that concerns other countries.

Either its internal affairs or external factors, Afghanistan has been a major concern for the neighboring and global states. The Uncertain Future of Afghanistan has been edited by two prominent experts of Afghanistan affairs: Dr. Nian Peng and Mr. Khalid Rahman, who continue to keep a keen eye on the country’s politics, culture, foreign affairs, religion, and invasions or interference.

The authors that have contributed their expert opinions in their respective chapters are basically words from the horses’ mouths. Many of the contributors are personally known to me and I am a witness to their services and understanding of Afghan affairs.

The Uncertain Future of Afghanistan has been divided into ten chapters, with the authors covering history, politics, society, culture, religion, terrorism, foreign invasions or interferences, civil wars, peace processes and discussing the impacts of these aspects on the future of Afghanistan. They have discussed in detail that the Taliban are facing serious internal challenges such as ethnic divisions, threats of terrorism, and the presence of ISIS, ETIM, IMU, and TTP.

One of the major issues that Taliban face on external front is the sanctions upon their leadership which prevent them for making direct relationships with the world. While knowing the importance of Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan, China was optimistic about Taliban’s coming to power and had sent its permanent envoy to Afghanistan in September 2023.

In chapter one of the book, the editors discuss the aims and objectives of the book and have deeply analyzed the approach and scholastic views of the authors. In chapter two, the author goes through the negotiations and peace process that the Taliban went through these years. He presents a threadbare discussion over the challenges that the Taliban faced during this process and the opportunities that they have missed during the years owing to various issues Taliban were having in their political approach, internal divisions, trust deficit and the role of game spoilers.

In chapter three, the authors are of the opinion that the presence of global terrorist networks on Afghan soil is the foremost challenge that the Taliban will face in the near future because the neighboring and regional states have serious concerns over the sanctuaries and safe havens that these networks enjoy under the umbrella of Taliban. Of these networks, ETIM and TPP are direct threats to the border security and terrorist attacks in China and Pakistan respectively.

Due to these militant activities, the government of Pakistan have targeted their safe havens in Afghanistan and have also announced another operation titled as ‘Azme Istehkaam’. Although the Taliban are trying to promote regional connectivity, transit trade, economic growth, infrastructure, and promotion of regional economic integration, the presence of foreign militants on their land, lack of political inclusivity, and the negation of role of women in the mainstream will further lessen their trust deficit.

The authors opine that despite security threats, China’s role in promoting economic activities, infrastructure development and humanitarian cooperation in Afghanistan is commendable in this scenario. In chapter four, the author opines about the regional response and security threats that come with the Taliban’s retaking of power in Afghanistan.

Based upon the positive response of some regional players, the author recommends that owing to the past experiences, these countries should be vigilant about the spillover effects of Taliban’s rule on the regional politics and that it may attract global militants and their narratives slowly and gradually to the region. She also analyzes the evolutionary phases of Taliban and the change of narratives, stance, beliefs, importance of public support and international community and compromises that they have learned throughout these times of their ouster from power in October 2001.

In chapter five, the author presents a postmortem of the post-9/11 policies of the US in Afghanistan and says that despite billions of investments on their defense forces, infrastructure development, and nation building, the Americans have terribly failed in achieving any tangible milestone in these twenty years. He opines that US and NATO have left Afghanistan in a much vulnerable situation. The author concludes that due to the loopholes in the policies and strategies of the US, the Taliban have reorganized and more than twenty international militant outfits have gotten the opportunity to have safe havens in Afghanistan.

In chapter six, the authors discuss the China-Afghanistan-Pakistan triangle and the challenges, progress and prospects of BRI in Afghanistan in detail. The authors are optimistic about the extension of CPEC to Afghanistan and have evaluated five key and pivotal areas of BRI in Afghanistan: trade, policy coordination, financial support, physical connectivity, and people-to-people contacts and exchanges.

The authors opine that while China is well aware of the security threats to the BRI projects in Afghanistan from US and India, it is ambitious of completing these projects and will mitigate these risks through vigilance and commitment to the cause of creating a conducive environment for economic activities and transit trade in Afghanistan.

In chapter seven, the author discusses Russia’s engagement in pre- and post-2001 Afghanistan. He is of the opinion that even with the former USSR’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 after defeat, Russia’s interests have not ended in Afghanistan. The author says that Russia intends to maintain its influence in the region and has interacted with successive Afghan governments. During the US presence in Afghanistan, Russia hosted the Taliban during the Moscow consultations and has maintained strategic relationships with them through special representatives for Afghanistan over the years.

In chapter eight, the authors discuss India-Afghanistan relations in the present Taliban rule. They opine that it was India who was at the most vulnerable position due to the return of Taliban to power in Afghanistan. India has been investing the US’s presence in Afghanistan due to two major reasons: countering Chinese influence in Afghanistan and lessening Pakistan’s role in Afghan affairs thereby weakening Pakistan’s western border. Since the return of the Taliban, India silently tries to start diplomatic ties with the Taliban and reassures its role through tactical means and diplomatic maneuvers.

In chapter nine, the author analyzes Pakistan’s post-9/11 policy in Afghanistan and states that it was a tough decision for Pakistan to align with the West at that time. The author opines that even while Pakistan helped the US in the war, Pakistan maintained its balancing act in its relationships with both the US and Afghanistan. The author goes on to say that the US presence in Afghanistan posed certain security challenges for Pakistan as certain militants regrouped in Afghanistan for countering US attacks. The author recommends that since the US has withdrawn, Pakistan needs to have constructive engagements with the Taliban and ensure its border security.

In the last chapter, the author discusses Japan’s viewpoint during US presence in Afghanistan. The author says that Japan was one of the major development partners of US in the post-9/11 development in Afghanistan, but complains over the attitude of US for undervaluing Japan’s role in reconstruction and nation building in Afghanistan. She opines that this negative attitude of the US disappointed Japan.

To conclude, owing to the highly scholastic opinions and rich material present in the book, it is strongly recommended that The Uncertain Future of Afghanistan be read by researchers, policymakers, opinion leaders, think tanks, academicians, students and those who are really enthusiastic to learn about Afghanistan affairs in the contemporary era.

This article was first published at Paradigm Shift, July 8, 2024, https://www.paradigmshift.com.pk/uncertain-future-of-afghanistan/.

Author Information:

Mairaj ul Hamid Nasri teaches at the Department of Political Science of the University of Malakand, Chakdara, Pakistan.

Email: mairajulhamid717@gmail.com 

Book information: 

Nian Peng and Khalid Rahman, The Uncertain Future of Afghanistan: Terrorism, Reconstruction, and Great-Power Rivalry, Singapore: Springer Nature, 2024.

The Springer Nature links: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-97-2409-3.

The RCAS links: http://www.rcas.top/event/2316.html