Since Iranian Revolution of 1979, the state of Israel clubbed with United States of America is termed to be enemy number one for Iranian government and the people. On many occasions, the two states have come to bull’s-eye situations apparently, but the historians have recorded that these states have never escalated to a war that will vanish existence of either of them. Although, situations with USA have been worsened time and again driven by the atrocities of situations like hostage crisis and assassination of General Qassim Sulaimani, yet not turned into war like scenario.

▲A cleric chants slogans during an anti-Israeli gathering in front of the British Embassy in Tehran, Iran, early Sunday, April 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Here, by going through the historical facts, analysts can argue and conclude that Iran will never go to war with any state in the contemporary era, but through various means will try to retain its doctrine that Iran is the savior of Al-Quds and other Islamic cultural and religious sites. Iran has tested the atrocities of time and knows how to respond to situations like these. Iran has been successful in retaining its revolution despite a long war with Iraq soon after the revolution. Iran has sacrificed many things and has been bearing with the unending sanctions on growing economy for retaining revolution and identity as well.

Iran is a rational actor in the global and regional politics and plays its cards very accurately for securing and achieving its national interests. Iranian strategists and policy makers know very well, how to keep equilibrium among the emotions of the general public, the sympathies of Muslims worldwide and achieving of national interests.

Iran’s strategic moves can be judged from the facts that how Iran handled The P5+1 and how she got success in Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and that the world is well aware of the fact that how Iran managed and conspired for uranium enrichment and modernizing missile technology.

The historians have also noted that how Iran has made its way to have a sway in the internal politics of Afghanistan. Iran has played as a realpolitik and has managed to balance the relationships with China and India. China has been a vocal and friend in need of Iran and has supported and guided Iran in many occasions. Iran’s rapprochement with kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been solely credited to China’s sincere intervention and has made the way for Iran’s peaceful coexistence with KSA and other like-minded Gulf states.

Owing to this prelude, coming towards the burning issue of Iran’s direct confrontation with Israel and its impacts on the regional politics, many media houses and analysts have termed the confrontation as just a drama of Iranian government and some have termed it as a genuine retaliation and revenge of Iranian Consulate’s bombing of Israel in Damascus a few days ago. Iranian officials have also termed it as a revenge and has shown that no further attacks will be carried out on Israeli installation in the same case.

Moreover, the Irani counter action was very much imminent. United States provided vital and timely information to the Israelis friends thus Israel’s aerial defensive assets were on hi-alert. The 300 projectiles from various directions were intercepted by the combined air defense system of Israel land and air based and US sea-based assets. Reportedly, almost 40% of the projectiles have successfully penetrated the Iron Dome and damage done is being ascertained.

Israel is now playing the victim card in UN Security Council and is supported by US, UK and its allies. However, US has distanced itself from any offensive action from Israel against Iran. Despite a long history of atrocities and proxies, it is the first time that Israel and Iran have got engaged in direct confrontation. The expansion of war is in the Israeli interest but looking towards the global and regional scenario it will be detrimental to the global peace, so the Security Council will definitely adopt a resolution for restraint and de-escalation of the situations.

Russia, because of Israel’s engagements and support with Ukraine has already announced that she will support Iran against Israel and it is quite clear that USA will come to the rescue of Israel in such situations will ultimately lead to a full-scale war on global level and allies will be compelled to comply, thus World War three will be ringing the bill along with the destruction of the major part of the world.

Iran has acted under immense internal and external pressure and went for a face saving before its proxies and hardliners in and outside. Most probably, the outcome of this escalation may go in the favor of Hamas, and the chances of ceasefire in Gaza may be prioritized.

Nevertheless, if Israeli government takes a solo flight at the diplomatic plinth and decides to go for a big blow to the Iranian strategic assets, then situations will go the other way and Iranian retaliation will be need of the hour. An incapacitated Iran is in the interests of many neutrals and enemies of Iran, so after the big blow, the peace be imposed. That peace may give a hope certificate to the Palestinians at the cost of Iran de-fanning.

On the other hand, Iran's influence and projection of power may get a boost in the Middle East, if Israel doesn't respond in a big way. In the current situations, it is in the best interest of the whole world to stop Israel from genocide in Palestine, go for ceasefire, allow returning of refugees to their destroyed homes, thus the retaliating nations, like Iran, Yemen, Lebanon and neutralize world public opinion against Israel.

It is the age of technology and any miscommunication or misleading news can turn the world into a dump of ashes so it is strongly advised to the world powers and P5 members to play their due role and go for a permanent solution to the outstanding issue of Palestine and bury this issue for once and for all. Palestine and Gaza are now flash points for the world and clash of civilizations, where humanity should prevail and human rights should be prioritized for the sake of securing a peaceful world.

The article was first published at RCAS, Hong Kong, Apr.23, 2024, 

http://www.rcas.top/list_30/2305.html.