Has the Philippines Swung to the US?

New Changes in  “Bongbong” Marcos’s China Policy

Nian Peng

Romualdez, the Philippine Ambassador to the United States, has made remarks on the Taiwan issue. Recently, he told Japanese media that if there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Manila will let the US troops use the military bases in the Philippines. Earlier, he also made it clear that if a large-scale war broke out in the Taiwan Strait, the Philippines would ally with the United States. Nian Peng, Director of RCAS, stated that the Philippines is sending a clear signal to China that the new government’s policies have changed. Beijing needs to interact with Manila in new ways.

According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun report on September 5, Romualdez recently made this statement in an exclusive interview. The report pointed out that the geopolitical importance of the Philippines is increasing, and Manila is negotiating with Washington to increase the number of Philippine military bases that the US military can use.

Earlier, Romualdez also said in a forum on August 15 that he hoped friendly neighbors and allies would exercise self-restraint and avoid large-scale war. If the United States is involved in the Taiwan issue, Manila will not necessarily be forced to participate. But in the event of a major war, “we will be allied with the United States.”

Why did the Philippine Ambassador to the United States emphasize the US-Philippines alliance many times? Nian Peng pointed out in an interview with a reporter from Hong Kong China News Agency on Tuesday that for Southeast Asian nations like the Philippines, if there is no conflict, it is still possible to not choose sides between China and the United States, and to please both sides. But China and the United States have already begun a military game across the Taiwan Strait. Under the constant pressure from the United States, the Philippine army has a strong sense of crisis and has to deploy in advance. Since the Philippines is originally a traditional military ally of the United States, and it also has an American military presence in the its territory, so there is no doubt that the Philippines will choose the United States.

There have been a number of cooperation agreements and treaties between the United States and the Philippines, including the Mutual Defense Treaty signed in 1951, the Military Mutual Visit Agreement in 1988, and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement in 2014. These agreements and treaties seem to have been diluted during the tenure of former Philippine President Duterte. But recently, Romualdez and the U.S. Department of Defense have both stated that they are ready to promote the defense cooperation agreement in the future. In the next two to three years, the Philippines will open additional bases to the U.S. military, which may include a naval base.

Nian Peng pointed out that the so-called dilution was short-lived. During Duterte’s first term, both sides has exposed big rifts due to Trump’s attacks on the Philippines’ anti-drug policy and Duterte’s tough attitude towards the United States. The strained bilateral ties resulted in a brief setback in the defense cooperation between the US and the Philippines. But in the second half of Duterte’s reign, under pressure from the military, Manila has been forced to revive some of the pact with the United States.

He continued: “The Philippines is a traditional military ally of the United States, and the bilateral cooperation is based on many treaties and cooperation agreements, not which president can easily change. Moreover, after Marcos took office, the risk of military conflicts in the region has risen sharply. Therefore, President Marcos is more likely to continue Duterte’s diplomacy in his second term, restore and consolidate military cooperation with the United States, and push forward military bases and infrastructure upgrading.”

Is the greater defense cooperation between the US and the Philippines intended for China? Nian Peng claimed that there is no need for China to oppose the “conventional” defense cooperation between the United States and the Philippines. However, if the military exercises conducted in disputed waters of the South China Sea or it is aimed at China, China has no choice but to retaliate.

After Philippine President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos took office on June 30, the United States has launched a diplomatic offensive to restore its alliance with the Philippines. After the U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken visited the Philippines immediately. Blinken said that “the Philippines is an irreplaceable friend, partner and ally of the United States” and that the United States and the Philippines “share common interests and values” and reiterated their rock-solid commitment to the Philippines on the South China Sea disputes.

The Philippines also announced that the United States and the Philippines “can conduct joint patrols in the South China Sea, which are within the scope of the mutual defense treaty.” Relations between the United States and the Philippines are heating up rapidly.

“The tension caused by the recent emergency in the Taiwan Strait has greatly accelerated the Philippines’ approach to the United States”, Nian Peng said. First of all, any new presidents are unlikely to completely adopt the policy of the predecessors. The new government’s foreign policy will definitely be different. Under increasing pressures from the US-China power rivalry amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the Philippines is getting closer to the United States. Actually, the Philippines never have a “pro-China” stance. Even when Duterte put aside the South China Sea disputes temporarily, it was more for Chinese investment.

On September 1, the newly-appointed Foreign Minister of the Philippines, Manaro, told the Congress that he would continue to mention the Philippines’ position on the South China Sea on different international occasions, so that China should not forget its maritime disputes with the Philippines. In fact, when Marcos took office, he said he would “develop a close relationship with China” but “not at the cost of losing sovereignty”.

Nian Peng believes that the new Philippine government is only slightly deviating from China and moving closer to the United States, but not completely in favor of the United States. The reason why the South China Sea disputes are constantly mentioned by the Philippines officials is that, on the one hand, it was a compromise made by the new government which was under great pressure from the domestic oppositions. On the other hand, the US-Philippines economic and trade relations would be strengthened after the Philippines joined the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework”. Hence, the Philippines attempt to firmly grasp the olive branch of the United States so as to attract more American investments.

In general, the new Philippine government is sending a clear signal to China that its policies have changed, it will emphasize sovereignty more, but it will also cooperate with foreign countries. In that case, China should reevaluate the Philippines’ foreign policies and interact with the country in new ways.

This article is translated from the Chinese edition which was first published at Hong Kong China News Agency, http://www.hkcna.hk/docDetail.jsp?id=100165801&channel=2813.

RCAS Talk-New Changes in “Bongbong” Marcos’s China Policy.pdf